Before we begin, let’s just establish that according to the Nuremberg Principles, what Vladimir Putin has done in Ukraine constitutes a War Crime. The dilemma this creates is that if we drag him before the Hague and charge him with such crimes, then technically, we have to drag George W. Bush and Tony Blair in front of them as well. Why? To stand trial for the Iraq invasion.
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
To understand the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict, it’s useful to examine the history of Ukraine and her neighbours. Whilst the Ukrainian ethnicity/language group has been around for centuries, the nation of Ukraine didn’t exist until 1917. If you look at any map printed before WW1, there is no Ukraine.
It was actually Lenin and the Communists who concocted the Ukrainian homeland after the Revolution, when the former Russian Empire was being broken up. This new republic would join Russia and 13 other countries in forming the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922.
Ukraine sits on a droll, featureless stretch of land. Which, as historian David Starkey explains, has been fought over for centuries. This is because present day Ukraine sits in a place where the borders of the old European Empires used to meet. The Swedish, German (Prussian) Empires from above. The mighty Ottoman Empire from below. The Russian Empire was coming from the East. And the little known Empire of Poland-Lithuania, also had a huge presence in the region.
PETER THE GREAT
After changing hands multiple times, it was finally taken by Russia, under Tsar ‘Peter the Great’ in 1686. The eastern and western parts of Ukraine are separated by the grand Dnipro River. ‘Peter the Great’ captured the eastern half, and Tsarina ‘Catherine the Great’ took the western half in 1764. Now the Ukrainian territories were permanently united under one flag – the flag of Imperial Russia.
It’s no co-incidence that President Putin has a big gold statue of ‘Peter the Great’ in his office. Despite being a former Lt. Colonel in the KGB, Putin doesn’t want to bring back the USSR – he hates the commies. Putin wants to take Russia back to the old imperial days before WW1, with himself as the new Tsar. He has also made it very clear that he sees Russians and Ukrainians as one people, one nation.
However, the citizens of Ukraine see things very differently. They celebrate their statehood, and have no intention of giving it up. Not surprisingly, this arm wrestle between the two sides has been going on since the fall of the Soviet Union.
UKRAINIAN CIVIL WAR
In 2014, the Ukrainian Civil War (aka. The War in Donbass), resulted in the deaths of over 2000 people. Pro-Russian Separatists in the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, clashed with Pro-EU Ukrainian Nationalists in the eastern region of Donbass – right near the border with Russia.
When separatist militias (supported by the Putin regime) declared Donetsk and Luhansk to be new independent republics, the Ukrainian Authorities sent in the Army. The fighting continued for many months, with both sides committing acts of brutality, until an uneasy ceasefire was signed in Minsk.
While everyone was distracted by that conflict, Putin took the opportunity to march the Russian Army into Crimea. After a fake referendum, they took the Peninsula away from Ukraine. The Russians have had their eye on Crimea for a while. Principally because it’s the perfect site for a Russian Naval Base in the Black Sea.
BROKEN PROMISES
At the end of the Cold War, Western leaders guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand beyond Germany. They lied. As award winning journalist Chris Hedges states, NATO should really have been disbanded at the end of the Cold War. But the military hardware manufacturers in the west, just couldn’t resist the trillions of dollars that were up for grabs if they armed Eastern Europe.
The Russian Government had always viewed Eastern Europe as part of their sphere of influence. They also liked having a “buffer zone” between them and the NATO countries of western and central Europe. Since that original promise, the nations of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland have all joined the NATO Alliance, leaving Russia feeling surrounded. When Ukraine started making moves towards joining NATO, it was a bridge too far for President Putin.
Putin has also made noises about the Russian speaking separatists in the Donbass region being persecuted by Ukraine’s “Nazi” Government. However, there is no evidence to back up these claims. Putin’s initial aim for this military action, seemed to be the removal of President Zelensky, and the installation of a Pro-Russian Government that wouldn’t join with NATO or the EU.
CONCLUSION
Unfortunately for Putin, the Ukrainian Army has turned out to be a lot more effective than he thought. In addition, the Russian Army has proven to be a lot less effective than everyone thought. It’s worth noting however, that the current Russian Army is only one tenth the size of the old Soviet Army.
They couldn’t take the capital of Kyiv, so now they are focusing on the south-east again. Putin has talked about wanting to break up Ukraine, but the World is firmly behind President Zelensky and his fellow countrymen/women. Although China and the Middle East are supporting Russia, this debacle is not what Putin and his Generals anticipated!
Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Kyiv during more peaceful times.
